Journal of Mathematics and Statistics

VAR-models for Predicting Biodiversity

Tonio D. Bettista, S. A. Gattone and Mariagrzia Granturco

DOI : 10.3844/jmssp.2005.322.325

Journal of Mathematics and Statistics

Volume 1, Issue 4

Pages 322-325


The aim of this work is to introduce a methodology for monitoring diversity of a biological population by using the tool of diversity profiles. In particular, we develop a theory for studying the diversity profile along the temporal axis. We propose forecasting techniques for diversity profile by using the VAR model on multivariate time series of abundance vector and ARMA models both on univariate time series of abundances and on the aggregated series of diversity profiles. A Monte Carlo simulation is performed in order to test the goodness of forecasts obtained applying the three different methods proposed.


© 2005 Tonio D. Bettista, S. A. Gattone and Mariagrzia Granturco. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.