Modeling and Forecasting of International Tourism Demand in ASEAN Countries
- 1 Faculty of Economics and Management, University Putra Malaysia, 43400 UPM, Serdang, Selangor, Malaysia
- 2 Department of Statistics, Sanandaj Branch, Islamic Azad University, Sanandaj, Iran
This study attempts to find the best model to forecast international tourism demand using a series of key macroeconomic variables in ASEAN countries. Generally, we find that generalized Poisson regression model is the best one for estimating long-run international tourism demand. In addition, we find that inflation and real exchange rate have negative relationship with international tourism demand. On the other hand, foreign direct investment and openness of trade have positive relationship with international tourism demand. Cointegration test result shows that there is a long-run relationship between variables.
Copyright: © 2015 Asrin Karimi, Pouya Faroughi and Khalid Abdul Rahim. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
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- Tourism Demand
- Economic Growth
- Macroeconomic Indicators
- Panel Poisson Regression