An HIV/AIDS Model with Variable Force of Infection and its Application to the Epidemic in Uganda
Flugentius Baryarama, Joseph Y.T. Mugisha and Livingstone S. Luboobi
DOI : 10.3844/ajassp.2005.1274.1278
American Journal of Applied Sciences
Volume 2, Issue 9
An HIV/AIDS model is formulated with variable force of infection for the adult population. Its actions are reduced to a prevalence equation that is a non-logistic equation whose explicit solution is derived. The implications of applying the solution to the evolution of the HIV/AIDS epidemic are discussed with respect to the positive boundedness of the coefficients. Prevalence projections are presented for various initial prevalences and behavior change parameters. The main finding is that in settings with high recruitment rates, the HIV epidemic reaches peak prevalence (and thereafter start declining) when the rate of new infections is still higher than the rate of removal of those infected with HIV.
© 2005 Flugentius Baryarama, Joseph Y.T. Mugisha and Livingstone S. Luboobi. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.