TY  - JOUR
AU  - Caporale, Guglielmo Maria 
AU  - Cunado, Juncal 
AU  - Gil-Alana, Luis A. 
PY  - 2011
TI  - Forecasting the Spanish Stock Market Returns with Fractional and Non-Fractional Models
JF  - American Journal of Economics and Business Administration
VL  - 3
IS  - 4
DO  - 10.3844/ajebasp.2011.586.588
UR  - https://thescipub.com/abstract/ajebasp.2011.586.588
AB  - Problem statement: The content of this note was to assess the forecasting accuracy of various models of the Spanish stock market returns. Approach: We use daily data on the IBEX 35 for the time period January 4th, 2001-March 28th, 2006 and employ both fractional and non-fractional models. Results: The results on the prediction errors for the out-of-sample forecasts indicate that the fractional models outperform the non-fractional ones. Conclusion: Standard forecasting criteria suggest that the ARFIMA (1, d, 0) model with d = -0.017 and the AR (1) coefficient equal to 0.068 is the best specification for this series. That implies that the stock market prices display a very small degree of mean reversion behavior.