Research Article Open Access

Forecasting Air Passenger Demand: A Comparison of LSTM and SARIMA

Quang Hung Do1, Shih-Kuei Lo2, Jeng-Fung Chen2, Chi-Luan Le1 and Luong Hoang Anh1
  • 1 University of Transport Technology, Vietnam
  • 2 Feng Chia University, Taiwan
Journal of Computer Science
Volume 16 No. 7, 2020, 1063-1084

DOI: https://doi.org/10.3844/jcssp.2020.1063.1084

Submitted On: 2 May 2020
Published On: 25 July 2020

How to Cite: Do, Q. H., Lo, S., Chen, J., Le, C. & Anh, L. H. (2020). Forecasting Air Passenger Demand: A Comparison of LSTM and SARIMA. Journal of Computer Science, 16(7), 1063-1084. https://doi.org/10.3844/jcssp.2020.1063.1084

Abstract

All airports need to have an accurate prediction of the number of passengers for their efficient management. An accurate prediction of the number of air passengers is crucial task since it provides information for planning decisions in the airport infrastructure to stabilize the service and maximize the profit. This study proposes a novel air passenger demand forecasting model based on Deep Neural Network (DNN), specifically, Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) algorithm. The developed models are applied on the data from Incheon International Airport to show its effectiveness and practicability. The Seasonal Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) method is also applied to the research problem. The performance criteria including MAPE, MSE, RMSE and MAD are used to evaluate the forecasting accuracy. The experimental results show that both SARIMA and LSTM approaches provide accurate and reliable forecasting and have greater predictive capability; however, the LSTM model shows a superior forecasting performance.

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Keywords

  • Forecasting
  • Air Passenger Demand
  • Deep Learning
  • LSTM
  • SARIMA