Research Article Open Access

Bayesian Framework in Repeated-Play Decision Making

Yohei Kobayashi1 and Takemi Fujikawa1
  • 1 ,
American Journal of Applied Sciences
Volume 9 No. 4, 2012, 609-614

DOI: https://doi.org/10.3844/ajassp.2012.609.614

Submitted On: 20 October 2011 Published On: 18 February 2012

How to Cite: Kobayashi, Y. & Fujikawa, T. (2012). Bayesian Framework in Repeated-Play Decision Making. American Journal of Applied Sciences, 9(4), 609-614. https://doi.org/10.3844/ajassp.2012.609.614

Abstract

Problem statement: There have been much reported on decisions from experience, also referred to as decisions in a complete ignorance fashion. Approach: This note lays out a Bayesian decision-theoretical framework that provides a computable account for decisions from experience. Results: To make the framework more tractable, this note sets up and examines decisions in an incomplete ignorance fashion. The current discussion asserts that well-known behavioural effects, such as the hot stove effect and the Bayesian framework may lead to different predictions. Conclusion/Recommendations: The framework is applied to the continuity form to predict a possibility from their experience. We conclude that the reasonable prediction is sometimes leads them to the unreasonable conditions.

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Keywords

  • Complete ignorance
  • decisions from experience
  • incomplete ignorance
  • Decision Makers (DMs)
  • framework more tractable
  • different predictions