Research Article Open Access

An HIV/AIDS Model with Variable Force of Infection and its Application to the Epidemic in Uganda

Flugentius Baryarama1, Joseph Y.T. Mugisha1 and Livingstone S. Luboobi1
  • 1 ,
American Journal of Applied Sciences
Volume 2 No. 9, 2005, 1274-1278

DOI: https://doi.org/10.3844/ajassp.2005.1274.1278

Submitted On: 31 August 2005 Published On: 30 September 2005

How to Cite: Baryarama, F., Mugisha, J. Y. & Luboobi, L. S. (2005). An HIV/AIDS Model with Variable Force of Infection and its Application to the Epidemic in Uganda . American Journal of Applied Sciences, 2(9), 1274-1278. https://doi.org/10.3844/ajassp.2005.1274.1278

Abstract

An HIV/AIDS model is formulated with variable force of infection for the adult population. Its actions are reduced to a prevalence equation that is a non-logistic equation whose explicit solution is derived. The implications of applying the solution to the evolution of the HIV/AIDS epidemic are discussed with respect to the positive boundedness of the coefficients. Prevalence projections are presented for various initial prevalences and behavior change parameters. The main finding is that in settings with high recruitment rates, the HIV epidemic reaches peak prevalence (and thereafter start declining) when the rate of new infections is still higher than the rate of removal of those infected with HIV.

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Keywords

  • HIV/AIDS model
  • prevalence rates
  • force of infection
  • adult population