Economic, Social and Political Scenarios of Mexico in the Next Two Decades
Josè G. Vargas-Hernàndez and Mohammad Reza Noruzi
DOI : 10.3844/jssp.2009.431.444
Journal of Social Sciences
Volume 5, 2009
Problem statement: This research proposal aims to analyze the economic, social and political foreseeable scenarios of Mexico by the year 2030. Approach: Starting from the analyzes of the recent economic, social and political developments, to searching the trends in specific economic issues such as international commerce, energy, employment, environmental constraints; social trends such as demographic transition, fertility, population growth, aging, migration, education, health, housing, human development and political trends such as democratization processes, social upheaval, human rights. Results: Finally, concluded described and discussed the scenarios at three levels: pessimistic, realistic and optimistic. The key findings will be analyzed in more details. The methodology used are time series analysis for historical data, correlation analysis for data series of the different variables, the Delphi technique, panel of experts, interviews to some clue economic, social and political actors. For the analysis, the prospective techniques are also used. Conclusion: At the end of the study the most important factors in shaping the economic, social and political landscape of Mexico in 2030 and beyond are identified. It is also examined how the Mexican society will cope with the broad range of challenges furthermore it is assessed what conditions may be key to transforming economic, social and political trends into security and social welfare issues.
© 2009 Josè G. Vargas-Hernàndez and Mohammad Reza Noruzi. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.