On Prediction of Depreciation Time of Fossil Fuel in Malaysia
Nora Muda and Tey Jin Pin
DOI : 10.3844/jmssp.2012.136.143
Journal of Mathematics and Statistics
Volume 8, Issue 1
Problem statement: The fossil fuels play a crucial role in the world energy markets. Demand for fossil fuels become increasingly high and worrisome, because of fossil fuels will be significantly reduced and ultimately exhausted. This study was conducted to predict the depreciation time of fossil fuels in Malaysia and estimate the time remaining before the fossil fuels will finish. Approach: To predict the depreciation time of fossil fuels, the reserves, consumption and prices of fossil fuel will be used. The prediction of fossil fuel reserves were estimated using ratio of fossil fuel reserve versus consumption, Klass Model and Modified Klass Model. The prediction time will give us the opportunity to prepare for the coming energy crisis and discover new energy sources. The results from the analysis will be concluded alongside with the Olduvai Theory and Hubbert Peak Theory. Both of the theories are highly related to the energy crisis. The Olduvai Theory states that the industrial civilization will last for approximately 100 year: circa 1930-2030. As for Hubbert Peak Theory, it can estimate the total amount of fossil fuels available based on the production rate from time to time. Results: Due to the vast usage of petroleum, it will be depleted faster than natural gas and coal. After 14 years, natural gas and coal will replace petroleum as a fossil fuel and coal would then be the major fossil fuels. Based on the results from Hubbert Peak Theory, the rate of production of petroleum has reached the maximum level in 2004 and started to decline since that time; while in the Olduvai theory, it has explained that the life expectancy of the industrial civilization was found to be ended in 2030. Petroleum will be spent over in 2020, followed by natural gas in 2058 and coal around the year 2066. Conclusion: So far, Malaysia has not facing disconnection of electricity as other developed countries. When this happens, it gives the meaning of the end of the industrial civilization where the electric power grids go down and never come back up. If there is no substance that can replace fossil fuels to continue in the industrial civilization, human civilization will be facing the fate of collapse.
© 2012 Nora Muda and Tey Jin Pin. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.