American Journal of Applied Sciences

Modeling and Forecasting of International Tourism Demand in ASEAN Countries

Asrin Karimi, Pouya Faroughi and Khalid Abdul Rahim

DOI : 10.3844/ajassp.2015.479.486

American Journal of Applied Sciences

Volume 12, Issue 7

Pages 479-486

Abstract

This study attempts to find the best model to forecast international tourism demand using a series of key macroeconomic variables in ASEAN countries. Generally, we find that generalized Poisson regression model is the best one for estimating long-run international tourism demand. In addition, we find that inflation and real exchange rate have negative relationship with international tourism demand. On the other hand, foreign direct investment and openness of trade have positive relationship with international tourism demand. Cointegration test result shows that there is a long-run relationship between variables.

Copyright

© 2015 Asrin Karimi, Pouya Faroughi and Khalid Abdul Rahim. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.