Bayesian Framework in Repeated-Play Decision Making
Yohei Kobayashi and Takemi Fujikawa
DOI : 10.3844/ajassp.2012.609.614
American Journal of Applied Sciences
Volume 9, Issue 4
Problem statement: There have been much reported on decisions from experience, also referred to as decisions in a complete ignorance fashion. Approach: This note lays out a Bayesian decision-theoretical framework that provides a computable account for decisions from experience. Results: To make the framework more tractable, this note sets up and examines decisions in an incomplete ignorance fashion. The current discussion asserts that well-known behavioural effects, such as the hot stove effect and the Bayesian framework may lead to different predictions. Conclusion/Recommendations: The framework is applied to the continuity form to predict a possibility from their experience. We conclude that the reasonable prediction is sometimes leads them to the unreasonable conditions.
© 2012 Yohei Kobayashi and Takemi Fujikawa. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.